Quick Answer: Three weeks post-SCOTUS: de minimis confirmed dead, $160B+ in IEEPA refunds claimable, new Section 301 China probes launched March 11, Section 122 expires July 24.

It has been three weeks since the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs and the administration pivoted to Section 122. Here is what actually happened versus what was predicted: de minimis is confirmed still suspended (March 3 reaffirmation), the 15% Section 122 rate is holding as expected, and a $160 billion refund window has opened for IEEPA tariffs previously collected. The surprise is that 15% is actually lower than the IEEPA rates it replaced — China-origin goods faced up to 145% under the old regime. Update (March 11): The administration launched new Section 301 trade investigations targeting China and 15 other countries — the legal groundwork for a second tariff wave that could land by late 2026. Active litigation (Axle of Dearborn v. Department of Commerce) is challenging the de minimis suspension, but no ruling is imminent. Congress has done effectively nothing. The clock reads 134 days to July 24 expiry. Four actions matter right now: file IEEPA refund claims, recalculate your actual cost change (which may be a decrease), monitor the new Section 301 investigations, and build contingency plans for the July cliff.

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Three Weeks After SCOTUS: The Status Update

This article picks up where our original coverage left off. For the full explainer on Section 122, see our US Tariff Reform guide. For broader logistics context, see our March 2026 Intelligence Report.

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Three weeks provides enough data to separate signal from noise. Here is the scorecard:

The biggest surprise: the tariff regime is less disruptive than the IEEPA rates it replaced. More on that below.

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On March 3, 2026, the administration reaffirmed that the $800 duty-free threshold for imports remains suspended. This was not a new action — it was a confirmation that the separate executive order from February 20 (preserving the de minimis suspension under non-IEEPA authority) remains in full effect.

Supply Chain Dive and Marketplace both reported this as "de minimis still shelved," which is the accurate framing. The legal basis shifted from IEEPA to a standalone executive order, but the practical outcome is identical: every package entering the US faces full customs processing and duty collection, regardless of value.

The Axle of Dearborn Challenge

Active litigation exists. Axle of Dearborn, Inc. v. Department of Commerce is challenging whether the executive branch can unilaterally override Section 1321's de minimis provision. The argument: Congress established the $800 threshold by statute, and the executive cannot suspend it without legislative action.

This case is worth monitoring but not worth planning around. Even if the challenge succeeds:

• The ruling would take months
• Congress could immediately pass legislation eliminating de minimis anyway (bipartisan support exists)
• The practical infrastructure for duty-free processing has already been dismantled

Bottom line: Plan as though de minimis is permanently gone.

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This is the most immediately actionable item in this update.

The Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs. That means over $160 billion in IEEPA-based duties collected prior to February 20 were collected without valid legal authority. Importers who paid these duties may be entitled to refunds.

Key Facts About Refund Claims

What This Means for Dropshippers

If you or your customs broker paid IEEPA-based tariffs on shipments before February 20, those payments are potentially refundable. The catch: you have to actively pursue the refund. There is no automatic process.

Action steps:

1. Pull your customs entry records from the past 12 months
2. Identify entries where IEEPA-based tariffs were applied (look for "reciprocal" or "fentanyl" tariff line items)
3. Calculate the total IEEPA duty paid
4. File a formal protest with CBP within 180 days of liquidation
5. If you use a customs broker, contact them this week — many are already filing batch protests on behalf of clients

The 180-day clock is running from each entry's liquidation date. Earlier entries are approaching their deadline. Do not wait.

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Here is something that got lost in the initial panic: the Section 122 rate of 15% is substantially lower than what Chinese-origin goods faced under IEEPA.

Rate Comparison: China-Origin Goods

For a typical $30 Chinese-sourced product under List 4A:

That is not a typo. If your products were subject to the highest IEEPA rates, your tariff burden may have actually decreased by 75% or more.

The caveat: Not all products faced the maximum 145% IEEPA rate. Many were lower. And if you were operating under de minimis (sub-$800 shipments direct to consumers), you went from $0 to $8.25 — that is a real increase. But for bulk/wholesale importers who were paying full IEEPA rates, Section 122 is genuinely cheaper.

15% is the statutory ceiling. Unlike IEEPA, where rates were set by executive discretion and went as high as the administration wanted, Section 122 is capped at 15% by law. It cannot go higher without Congress.

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As of March 10, there are 136 days remaining before Section 122 expires automatically. No congressional action is required for it to sunset — it simply stops.

Congressional Activity: Minimal

Despite the urgency, Congress has not introduced any significant tariff legislation since the SCOTUS ruling. Multiple committees have held hearings, several bills have been discussed in draft form, but nothing has advanced to committee vote.

The reasons are predictable: tariff policy is politically complex, the administration wants maximum flexibility, and midterm positioning makes any vote risky. The most likely outcome is that Congress waits until late June or early July before acting — or does not act at all.

What Happens After July 24?

This is the critical planning question. Three scenarios, updated from our original assessment:

Scenario A: Congress extends Section 122 or passes new tariff authority

Congress grants the administration broader tariff powers, potentially at rates above the current 15% ceiling. This is the administration's preferred outcome. New legislation could set rates anywhere from 10% to 60%+ depending on political dynamics.

Probability update: Still moderate. The lack of legislative activity through March makes a pre-July deadline tighter.

Scenario B: Section 122 expires with no replacement

The 15% surcharge drops to zero on July 24. Section 301 tariffs on China (7.5–25%) remain. Non-China imports return to normal MFN rates only.

Probability update: Higher than initially assessed. Congressional gridlock is real.

Scenario C: New Section 301 investigations replace Section 122

The administration has already signaled expanded Section 301 investigations covering "most major trading partners." These investigations could lead to new tariffs on a product-by-product and country-by-country basis, without congressional approval.

Probability update: High. USTR has already initiated several of these investigations. But Section 301 tariffs take months to implement through the required notice-and-comment process.

The Planning Gap

The problem: there is a potential gap between July 24 (Section 122 expiry) and whenever Section 301 tariffs on non-China goods take effect (months later). During that gap, non-China imports would face only normal MFN duties — potentially creating a brief period of lower costs for Vietnam, India, and Turkey-sourced goods.

Do not restructure your entire supply chain around a potential temporary gap. But do note it in your contingency planning.

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1. File IEEPA Refund Claims

If you imported under IEEPA tariffs before February 20, contact your customs broker about filing CBP protests. The 180-day clock is running.

2. Recalculate Your Actual Cost Change

Do not assume your costs went up. If your products were paying IEEPA rates (especially on China-origin goods), run the comparison. The Section 122 rate may be significantly lower than what you were paying.

3. Build July 24 Contingency Models

Create three pricing models — one for each post-July scenario. You do not need to act on them now, but you need them ready. Set a calendar reminder for July 1 to finalize your approach.

4. Monitor the Axle of Dearborn Case

If the court rules that de minimis suspension requires congressional approval, the entire customs processing framework changes. This is a low-probability, high-impact event. Keep it on your radar.

5. Review Your HTS Classifications

With every package now requiring full customs processing, HTS accuracy matters more than ever. Misclassification risks are real — wrong codes mean wrong duty rates, potential penalties, and delays. If you have not verified your product classifications since the tariff changes, do it now.

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The tariff landscape is settling into a new normal that is more predictable than the IEEPA era but still temporary. The key dynamics:

• De minimis is structurally dead — not coming back regardless of litigation outcomes
• 15% is the floor, not the ceiling — Congress could authorize higher rates after July 24
• China remains the most expensive sourcing origin — Section 301 stacking puts Chinese goods at 22.5–40% combined tariffs
• Non-China sourcing gets a relative advantage — 15% flat with no Section 301 stacking
• Customs processing overhead is permanent — every package, every country, full documentation

For sellers working with a fulfillment partner that handles customs declarations and HTS classification across markets, the documentation burden is manageable. For sellers trying to handle it themselves across multiple countries, the overhead is compounding.

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Can I get a refund on IEEPA tariffs I paid before the SCOTUS ruling?

Potentially yes. The Supreme Court ruled IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, which means duties collected under IEEPA authority were collected without valid legal basis. You must file a formal CBP protest within 180 days of the entry's liquidation date. There is no automatic refund mechanism — you have to actively file. Contact your customs broker or an international trade attorney if your total IEEPA payments were significant.

Is de minimis actually coming back?

Almost certainly not. The March 3 confirmation reinforced the suspension, and the legal basis has been shifted to standalone executive authority (not IEEPA). Even the Axle of Dearborn lawsuit, if successful, would likely prompt Congress to pass legislation eliminating de minimis permanently — both parties have signaled support for ending it. Plan as though it is permanent.

Is 15% really the maximum under Section 122?

Yes. Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 explicitly caps the tariff rate at 15% ad valorem for up to 150 days. The President cannot raise it above 15% without congressional authorization. This is a hard statutory limit, unlike IEEPA where rates were set by executive discretion and reached 145% on some Chinese goods.

What happens to my costs if Section 122 expires on July 24?

If Section 122 expires and nothing replaces it, the 15% surcharge drops to zero. You would still pay normal MFN duties and Section 301 tariffs (China only: 7.5–25%). Non-China imports would return to MFN-only rates. But some form of replacement tariff authority is likely — either through new legislation or expanded Section 301 investigations.

Should I switch sourcing from China to avoid Section 301 stacking?

It depends on volume and timeline. Moving sourcing from China to Vietnam or India eliminates the 7.5–25% Section 301 layer, saving that percentage on every unit. But sourcing diversification takes months to execute properly — supplier qualification, quality testing, MOQ negotiations, logistics setup. For high-volume SKUs where the 7.5–25% savings is material, start the process now. For lower-volume products, the switching cost may not justify the tariff savings, especially given Section 122's temporary nature.

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Update added March 12, 2026.

One day after this article was originally published, the Trump administration launched new Section 301 trade investigations targeting 16 countries: China, the EU, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, India, Singapore, and 7 others.

Why this matters more than it might seem:

Section 301 is the trade authority the SCOTUS ruling did not touch. Unlike IEEPA (struck down in February), Section 301 was specifically designed to address unfair trade practices and has been upheld by courts consistently. By filing these investigations now, the administration is building the legal record to impose tariffs that would survive judicial challenge.

Critical differences from Section 122:

For China specifically: Existing Section 301 tariffs (7.5–25%) remain active. New Section 301 investigations could add further China-specific rates on top of the current stack. If Section 122 expires on July 24 AND new Section 301 tariffs arrive by Q4, China-sourced goods could face a period of lower combined tariffs briefly — followed by potentially higher long-term rates.

For Vietnam, India, and other "alternative" sourcing markets: These countries are now explicitly targeted. The tariff advantage of moving away from China may narrow significantly if Section 301 tariffs expand globally.

The Trump-Xi wildcard: A state visit between Trump and Xi is planned for April 2026. A bilateral deal could carve out China-specific exemptions or delay escalation. Do not restructure your supply chain before seeing the outcome of that meeting.

Scenario C probability update: Previously assessed as "high." Now confirmed — Section 301 investigations are underway, not just signaled.

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Three weeks in, the post-SCOTUS tariff regime is more stable and more predictable than what it replaced. The 15% rate is locked in by statute, the stacking math is straightforward, and the refund opportunity is real. The uncertainty is all on the back end — what happens after July 24.

Use this window to optimize, not panic. File your IEEPA refund claims. Verify your HTS codes. Build contingency models. And set that July 1 calendar reminder.

For the full Section 122 explainer and cost calculation worksheets, see our US Tariff Reform guide. For monthly policy updates and market intelligence, follow our Intelligence Reports.

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Last updated: March 12, 2026

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